Political Machine 2020 #1: Being Pete Buttigieg

Published on Monday, February 17, 2020 By Brad Wardell In TPM Journals

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The Political Machine is a strategy/simulation game.  What has made it so popular over the years is that while it is a game, it has a pretty serious and robust simulation running behind it.  Most of the data is collected from a wide array census results, surveys and demographic research. 

Every four years when we update the data, we are constantly surprised on the changes we see in different states.  The opioid epidemic is one example.  This issue wasn’t on our radar four years ago. Now it’s actually a pretty big issue in numerous states.

But in other areas, we can't rely on data. We have to make subjective judgments. Take candidate design for instance. Mayor Pete has gone through a few designs this time. Some people are easier to create caricatures than others.  He’s hard. At least that’s what the artists tell me. Mr. Buttigieg is doing well in the early primaries but should he become the nominee, can he win? 

Some candidates are harder to win with than others.   I would say Pete Buttigieg is a bit harder to win with than some of the others.  Here’s why: He has low minority appeal and for Democrats, there are a few states that become pretty hard to win as a Democrat if your minority appeal isn’t strong.  The problem however is that minority appeal is a subjective rating we give the candidates.  That’s why it’s so tricky.  What makes us qualified to say his minority appeal is weaker than say Joe Biden's?  We have some polling data but that’s really a cop-out on something that is simply a rating on a scale from 1 to 10.

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So which states would be harder for Pete Buttigieg to win?

 

Michigan for one.

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Florida for another.

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Which isn’t to say he can’t win them.  It's just harder.

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Overall, Mayor Pete is a bit tougher to play as than say Hillary Clinton or Barrack Obama but a skilled player can definitely win.