Brad Wardell's Blog


Kerry victory in November

Published on Friday, October 15, 2004 By Brad Wardell In Politics

Polls are interesting things but statistical analysis is my thing.  And based on our models in The Political Machine, Kerry is going to squeak out a victory in November barring a sudden change in events.

The Florida of 2004 may be where you least expect it - Iowa. Ohio and Iowa are going to be the key states this time. But it is Iowa that people should be keeping an eye on even more so than Ohio or Florida. It has a relatively low population which creates all kinds of opportunity for messing with the final results.

Moreover, Bush can potentially win the election and still lose Ohio as long as he gets Iowa.  That's because Wisconsin is likely to go Bush this time.  So you could have a bizarre scenario where Bush wins the election despite losing Ohio.  In that event, it would be Bush 271 to Kerry's 267.

Obviously when it's as close as it is, it's really hard to make a definitive prediction. Our statistical model is not poll driven but is instead issue driven. The war in Iraq is no longer as strongly favored by independents and the jobs issue in Ohio has increased.

So our prediction right now is that Kerry has an advantage even though national polls currently favor Bush. And that the two states to watch out for are Ohio and Iowa. The computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry in our simulations now focus almost exclusively on those two states.  New Mexico could also go either way but it isn't statistically relevant.

This article does not indicate a preference by Stardock or Ubi Soft. It is just a report from our statistical model and from waching the computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry.  If you're an American, regardless of where you live, please make sure you are registered to vote and vote this November.

Seasonal Skinning Contests!

Published on Friday, October 15, 2004 By Brad Wardell In WinCustomize News

It's time for the skinners to start getting a piece of the action. And so starting Monday, we are going to begin running on-going contests in which at the end of that contest the top 10 winners get a percentage of the income we earn from WinCustomize subscriptions.

The winners will be calculated based on subscriber downloads of skins that are submitted AFTER the contest begins. A single author can win multiple positions in the top 10.

This first contest is on WindowBlinds skins. So starting Monday, we'll be tracking the number of subscriber downloads of new WindowBlinds skins. On December 2, we'll then look at the top 10 and hand out the prizes.

Our goal is to encourage new, high quality skins to get submitted, reward skinners for their support, and encourage more people to subscribe to the site. It's only through WinCustomize subscriptions that we can afford to keep this site going.

Kerry's use of Cheney's daughter backfiring?

Published on Friday, October 15, 2004 By Brad Wardell In Politics

Kerry's decision to use Cheney's daughter as a political prop in the last debate may come back to haunt him. Non-parents don't seem to get the big deal but most parents I know (left or right) are pretty outraged by it. It may turn out to be the blunder that costs Kerry in Ohio which is the key state in this election.

One good article on the issue can be found here: http://thoughtsonline.blogspot.com/2004/10/james-taranto-and-others-may-be-right.html

Imagine if Bush had talked about how traumatic divorce is and talked about how hard it must have been on Kerrys' daughters when Kerry left their mother. Would that be okay? No. It would not. It would have been tacky beyond belief.

Parents don't want their kids used as fodder. It has nothing to do with the daughter being gay but rather bringing up your opponent's children in an effort to help yourself is very poor taste. And it's particularly reprehensible that it was such a blatant ploy (to the ponit that John Stewart was making fun of it) to try to appeal to the homophobe vote. There was no point in bringin up Cheney's daughter in the debate.

It reminds me of the end of the movie, The Dead Zone, where the crooked politician picks up a nearby child to use as a human child. Kerry, in essence, made use of his opponent's child as a blunt instrument and it may cost him the election depending on how much legs this story has. And I think it does have some legs. People are mad about it. It was talked about at work and on the radio and elsewhere. 

If you're not a parent, you won't understand it I suspect.  My wife and I were disgusted at the time. We just couldn't believe he did that. The press score, who aren't conservatives, apparently groaned when they heard him say that from the press room at the debate hall. I suspect Kerry may be groaning too when it's over. We'll see.

 

DesktopX for games, supporting skinners, and more

Published on Friday, October 15, 2004 By Brad Wardell In OS Customization

My 15 minutes of fame got a boost this week when I was on MSNBC's show with Lester Holt to pimp The Political Machine. It was the same weird stare into the camera with only an ear piece without being able to see the other person. But it went well. With the race so close, it's not surprising sales have been so strong on it and it's gotten so much attention.

There's a post-mortem up now on how The Political Machine was made and it's created quite a buzz because of how quickly it was made and on how low a budget. The secret? DesktopX. We used it to create the user interface for the game and then have our DirectX engine read in .dxpacks. It's pretty amazing stuff that no other game developer really has (even Blizzard would be hard pressed to create a DesktopX type product strictly for game development).

Meanwhile, we've decided to start trying to share a piece of the pie with skin authors here on WinCustomize. Starting probably in the next 24 to 72 hours the authors of the top 10 new (non-ported) WindowBlinds skins will start getting a percentage of WinCustomize subscription sales. The goal - encourage the creation of more high quality skins and encourage users to subscribe to the site.

Some people may have noticed that Paul Boyer's Orion icon suite got a major update with every single icon enhanced to have a 128x128 version which will make ObjectDock users happy. He has also finished, after a year of work, the Utopia icon suite which will be available for sale in the next couple of weeks. It's very awesome and I hope to have some preview shots up soon.

Meanwhile, Stardock has decided to begin really beefing up Object Desktop's productivity features now that the customization portions have really matured.  Expect to see three new components in the coming months: Enhanced File Dialog, PowerTune, and Web Explorer. One new component, RightClick, has entered beta. Yea, it's still pretty rough. But it holds a lot of promise. It combines both productivity and skinning together.

Speaking of web stuff, check out the new Google desktop search stuff. Google has brought its powerful search features to your own computer. It's really fantastic. I was able to find long lost documents. And the potential for this thing is amazing. Stardock has big plans with this stuff in the coming year or two as it explores its possibilities.

Blog: DesktopX for game development, money for skinners, Object Desktop productivity and more...

Published on Friday, October 15, 2004 By Brad Wardell In WinCustomize News

My 15 minutes of fame got a boost this week when I was on MSNBC's show with Lester Holt to pimp The Political Machine. It was the same weird stare into the camera with only an ear piece without being able to see the other person. But it went well. With the race so close, it's not surprising sales have been so strong on it and it's gotten so much attention.

There's a post-mortem up now on how The Political Machine was made and it's created quite a buzz because of how quickly it was made and on how low a budget. The secret? DesktopX. We used it to create the user interface for the game and then have our DirectX engine read in .dxpacks. It's pretty amazing stuff that no other game developer really has (even Blizzard would be hard pressed to create a DesktopX type product strictly for game development).

Meanwhile, we've decided to start trying to share a piece of the pie with skin authors here on WinCustomize. Starting probably in the next 24 to 72 hours the authors of the top 10 new (non-ported) WindowBlinds skins will start getting a percentage of WinCustomize subscription sales. The goal - encourage the creation of more high quality skins and encourage users to subscribe to the site.

Some people may have noticed that Paul Boyer's Orion icon suite got a major update with every single icon enhanced to have a 128x128 version which will make ObjectDock users happy. He has also finished, after a year of work, the Utopia icon suite which will be available for sale in the next couple of weeks. It's very awesome and I hope to have some preview shots up soon.

Meanwhile, Stardock has decided to begin really beefing up Object Desktop's productivity features now that the customization portions have really matured.  Expect to see three new components in the coming months: Enhanced File Dialog, PowerTune, and Web Explorer. One new component, RightClick, has entered beta. Yea, it's still pretty rough. But it holds a lot of promise. It combines both productivity and skinning together.

Speaking of web stuff, check out the new Google desktop search stuff. Google has brought its powerful search features to your own computer. It's really fantastic. I was able to find long lost documents. And the potential for this thing is amazing. Stardock has big plans with this stuff in the coming year or two as it explores its possibilities.

Debate aftermath

Published on Thursday, October 14, 2004 By Brad Wardell In Politics

Stephen Green is pretty ticked off with how Democrats are trying to undermine the US election with their shenegans. Read it for yourself. And here's a running tally of voter fraud.

Slate has some interesting views on the whole Cheney's Daughter is gay thing. My own point is fairly succinct: If Cheney's daughter were suffering from Parkison's disease, would it have been acceptable for Kerry to bring her up as a reason to fund fetal stem cell research? Perhaps you would think that's okay but I wouldn't necessarily want people so lacking in tack and class to be in my home. Talk about an inappropriate time and place to bring up personal family business.

The election will be close. Whoever wins Ohio is going to win the election. Simple as that. So I won't be staying up too late. I'll just wait to see who wins in Ohio.

My wife is going to vote for Bush. I'll probably be reluctantly be voting for Bush. I'm more of a Kerry detractor at this point than a Bush supporter. I really dislike class warfare bullshit. And Kerry seems to be all about that. It really gets under my skin every time he talks about "the tax cut for the rich". Especially from guys who pay little in taxes relative to their wealth because they hardly earn any taxes. Hey Kerry, how about we start taxing idle, unearned wealth more. Where's that proposal? I'm busting my ass earning money, creating jobs, etc. and you want to raise my taxes?

It's also hard to take the foreign policy views of anyone who voted against the 1990 gulf war resolution seriously. I have no doubt that he would return us to the pragmatic, Clintonian foreign policy that led to 9/11. In fact, Kerry's so pragmatic that he's not going to bother to try to do something about Social Security. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that if we don't dramatically change the system soon, it's going to collapse when those baby boomers retire.

I've known guys like Kerry. He's the guy who doesn't propose very much but just sits back and bitches about the guys doing something. The Democrats should have nominated Howard Dean. At least he has principles.

Bush finally wins a debate

Published on Wednesday, October 13, 2004 By Brad Wardell In Politics

Kerry seemed a bit off his game today and Bush seemed very much on his game. This time I give Bush the edge.  He seemed relaxed, strong on the issues, and got all his points out.  Kerry wasn't that bad but he was a lot more defensive than I would have thought.

I don't think it will make much difference though. Bush blew the first debate so badly when the audience was so big. The audience here was much smaller than it was in the first debate. Kerry also played a bit of dirty pool with the lesbian issue and Bush got that key 1990 Kerry vote on the first Gulf War.

Here is a recap of the debate scoring:

Debate #1:
Kerry 5
Bush 2

Debate #2:
Cheney 2
Edwards 1

Debate #3:
Kerry 5
Bush 4

Debate #4:
Kerry 3
Bush 5

Final Score:
Kerry: 14
Bush: 13

Picking between 2 sets of losers..

Published on Wednesday, October 13, 2004 By Brad Wardell In Politics

I wish I were more excited about this election.  It's a sad commentary of our political process and its overall nastiness that the best we can do it a John Kerry or George W. Bush.  Two guys who wouldn't have made it through a first round of interviews at most companies. And so that's what we end up with - guys who can't get real jobs end up becoming politicians.

Ever heard the saying "Those who can't, teach"?  They should add a corollary to that: Those who can't, teach. And those who can't teach run for office. No one bothers to deconstruct these guys. They hide behind "Years of dedicated public service" and other such glossing over the fact that all 4 of these men are nothing special.

Let's take a hard look at them.

First we have our President, George W. Bush.  He's a guy who really never had a real job. He was a trust fund baby. Ever look at his job record? Not much there. He simply used his dad's various connections to work his way up.  His only redeeming quality is that he's good at spotting smart people to work with.

Next we have Dick Cheney.  Cheney is significantly better in my opinion. He obviously knows his stuff and probably could have done well in the private sector (and was, after all, the CEO of Halliburton). Of course, Halliburton is the boogeyman now that he's vice president.  But that's mostly the result of dumb people believing manufactured crap from politicians. But he only got that position at Halliburton because he had previously been secretary of defense. Bright guy that could have probably done well in the real world but he'll never be President.

Then there's John Kerry. Here's a guy who converted 4 months of experience in Vietnam into a political career. He immediately went for public office. When he lost (at first)  he was briefly a pretty decent district attorney.  But like Bush, he didn't accomplish much outside of politics. And in politics he was a pretty mediocre senator.  Another rich guy (though good at becoming richer by marrying well) who just coasted through life.  He is, at least, able to speak coherently and intelligently, something that Bush doesn't seem to be very good at. But like Bush, just a spoiled frat boy who's coasted through life.

And finally there's John Edwards, my least favorite of them all. Edwards is the ultimate hypocrite. A social parasite. An ambulance chaser who somehow managed to make it look like he was fighting for the "little guy" even as he pocketed tens of millions of dollars in settlements. A guy whose only real expertise is having figured out how to work the insurance industry system of knowing how much he could get out of an insurance company without having to go to court.  He has never made anything. Built anything. And worse, he's a hypocrite. While decrying how the government needs to raise income taxes to help provide more to the "other America", he himself bilked the system (legally) in ways other businessmen (such as myself) refuse to do.  How? He made his law practice an s-corporation and then pays himself through dividends. So income tax increases don't affect him at all. Nice. I could do the same thing. Our accountants put it like this back in 2000 (I'm quite familiar with how Edwards did his taxes as you can tell): "If you want to avoid paying taxes, your best bet is to pay yourself in the form of dividends rather than a salary." It's perfectly legal but kind of icky ethically. It's a loophole and while I deplore high taxes, I don't believe it's acceptable to exploit the system.  So I get paid a salary and pay my income taxes and Medicaid and Medicare taxes as well -- even as slime balls like Edwards complain I'm not paying enough even as he avoids paying hardly any taxes at all.

And I could include Nader who is, sadly, a total nut. Besides not even owning a car (I'm not even sure he has a driver's license) he's weird in all sorts of other ways. A 70some year old life-long bachelor. Want to talk about out of touch with the rest of America.

So these are our choices. Oh joy..

Orion Icons Updated!

Published on Wednesday, October 13, 2004 By Brad Wardell In WinCustomize News

The Orion premium icon suite is the ultimate set of icons.  Leading icon artist, Paul Boyer, also known as Mormegil, created the Orion icons suite in 6 different colors and they look incredible.

Now, Paul has gone and revisited his design. Touched them up here and there, added a couple of new icons and increased the resolution to support all the way up to 128x128 icons.

And if you already bought the suite, these updates are yours free! And if you haven't, you can still get them all together. Check them out.